State of World Markets via Country Fund ETF's: Unpleasantries

Captain obvious here, but things are pretty ugly around the world markets. Over 90% of these country ETF's are below their 200 day moving averages, indicating bear market territory. Only three of these ETF's are even up on the year. The market is now (and has been for a few weeks) guilty until proven innocent. If the market starts to rise on bad news, then I'd take notice for potential longs. Otherwise, it's bear time.

Ticker	Date/Time	Fullname	Close	% Above/Below  200 SMA	YTD Change
TUR	8/22/2011	Turkey Investable Market Index	44.58	-40.7	-32.67
EWI	8/22/2011	Italy Index	12.89	-34.47	-21.31
VNM	8/22/2011	Market Vectors Viam	18.18	-29.43	-30.56
EIS	8/22/2011	Israel Capped Investable Market	43.76	-28.65	-27.69
EWG	8/22/2011	Germany Index	19.62	-28.62	-18.05
EWO	8/22/2011	Austria Investable Market Index	17.07	-28.41	-23.56
EWD	8/22/2011	Sweden Index	24.49	-27.35	-21.58
RSX	8/22/2011	Market Vectors Russia Trust Sbi	30.47	-25.57	-19.63
EPOL	8/22/2011	Poland Investable Market Index	27.9	-24.7	-16.94
EWN	8/22/2011	Netherlands Investable Market I	17.33	-23.46	-17.83
EWQ	8/22/2011	France Index	20.96	-22.97	-14.27
EWY	8/22/2011	South Korea Index	50.31	-22.23	-17.78
EWZ	8/22/2011	Brazil (Free) Index	60.15	-22.21	-22.29
FXI	8/22/2011	FTSE China 25 Index	35.67	-20.68	-17.22
EPI	8/22/2011	Wisdomtree India Earnings	19.94	-20.15	-24.44
EWP	8/22/2011	Spain Index	33.75	-18.95	-8.14
AFK	8/22/2011	Market Vectors Africa	28.18	-16.84	-19.9
EWT	8/22/2011	Taiwan Index	12.93	-16.01	-17.22
ECH	8/22/2011	Chile Investable Market Index	63.46	-15.61	-20.28
EWK	8/22/2011	Belgium Ivestable Market Index	11.91	-15.09	-9.29
EIRL	8/22/2011	Ireland Capped Investable Market	18.44	-15.04	-9.21
SPY	8/22/2011	SPDR S&P 500	112.73	-14.12	-10.35
EWH	8/22/2011	Hong Kong Index	16.52	-13.99	-12.68
EWA	8/22/2011	Australia Index	22.36	-13.8	-12.11
EWU	8/22/2011	United Kingdom Index	15.61	-13.19	-10.13
EWC	8/22/2011	Canada Index	27.9	-13.02	-10
MES	8/22/2011	Market Vectors Gulf Shares	19.98	-12.35	-15.55
EWJ	8/22/2011	Japan Index	9.45	-11.42	-13.38
EWS	8/22/2011	Singapore (Free) Index	12.31	-11.01	-11.12
EWW	8/22/2011	Mexico Investable Market Index	54.96	-10.56	-11.24
EZA	8/22/2011	South Africa Index	63.55	-10.04	-14.9
EWL	8/22/2011	Switzerland Index	23.26	-9.56	-7.26
EWM	8/22/2011	Malaysia (Free) Index	14.29	-1.85	-0.63
EPHE	8/22/2011	Philippines Investable Market	24.25	0.75	-2.73
THD	8/22/2011	Thailand Investable Market Index	65.93	0.97	2.04
ENZL	8/22/2011	New Zealand Investable Market	31.15	2.12	6.02
EIDO	8/22/2011	Indonesia Investable Market Index	31.24	4.13	7.35

For The History Books: Unprecedented Market Action

The market has been extremely wild to say the least. I will admit, it punished me hard. Going through such challenging period makes you reflect and question some things. I question the trading decisions I've made. I question my trading system and its ability to handle such a volatile period. I question my own sanity at times. But since I am writing this post, it means I am not dead. And since I'm not dead, this experience can only make me STRONGER.

I got slaughtered the past couple weeks, and I wonder: could I have planned or anticipated this better?  At this point, I'm not really sure yet. But when I look at the market stats from the last week, I realize it is hard to plan for things that have never happened before. That's still no excuse, but here are some items to reflect on.

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- S&P Downgrades US Debt: NEVER HAPPENED! This is what I call a BLACK SWAN.

- Dow Jones Ind. 4 straight days of 4% moves: This has only happened 5 other times in history. November 2008, the 1987 Crash, then the 1929 - 1932 period. Rare indeed!

- Dow Jones Ind. 4 straight days of 400 point moves: NEVER happened. Granted it is all relative to the actual balance of the index. But still...

NYSE McClellan Oscillator (ratio adjusted): On 8/8/11, it hit -142.58. It has only been below -140 7 other times, the last being the 1987 crash.

Nasdaq McCLellan Oscillator (ratio adjusted): On 8/8/11, it hit -118.82 This is the first time it has been below -118 since the 1987 crash period. It hit below -140 on the crash day.

Zweig Breadth Indicator: It hit a low of 27.03 this week. It is a breadth overbought/oversold measure. It hasn't been this low since November 2008, one random day in 1990, then 1987 crash. Pretty rare.

NYSE Advance / Decline Volume: 90% up/down 4 straight days in row. If you take the NYSE volume of advancing issues compared to the volume of declining issues you get this indicator. We have NEVER had 4 90% days (up or down) in row ever. This lets you know how 'one way' the market has been, in either direction.

$SPX down over 13% in 5 days: Last time it happened was Oct/Nov 2008, 1987 crash, then 1940. Not a regular occurrence.

VIX 74% above its 10 day SMA: NEVER been this high. The day after the Flash Crash it was 67% over the 10 SMA.

VIX moved up 105% in 3 days: NEVER happened. The previous 3 day record was 80% in 2007.

VIX up 50% in one day: Only 5 other times in history.

*** Follow Sentiment Trader on Twitter and you will learn more. Here are some of his tweets from this week. Let that perspective soak in:

"Today has seen the widest-ever range in the NYSE TICK indicator (per Bloomberg data). From -1538 to +1560. $$"


"The only other times the a/d line has been this skewed were 5/13/40 and 5/21/40. Yeah, 70 years ago.$$"

"Nasdaq up/down volume on pace for worst reading ever (dating to 1984). The 2nd-worst reading was last Thursday.$$Don't have final figures yet, but this may be the worst-breadth day in history (since '40). 66 stocks down for every 1 up. $$"

"VIX jumps >30% twice in a week. The only one i show is 10/19/87."

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This was no garden variety pullback. Most indicator extremes can only be compared to previous crash periods (2008, 1987, 1929). When indicators get this extreme, they basically loose all meaning. I think it is safe to say that we just went through one of the craziest periods in market history!

There are lessons to be learned. I just need to clearly identify these lessons and create an action plan to address them. I hope you all can do the same.

Good trading.