VIX and Its Collection of ETF's: Forming a Tradeable Plan

I do my best to track and understand the VIX.  I can't explain the technicalities such as backwardation, contango or even skew. I just attempt to look at this volatility index from a broad, simple man's point of view. Can I use the historical, back-tested price action of the VIX to generate actionable trade ideas? As of right now, I haven't put it all together, but I'm trying. So here is a recap of some studies from the past months.

1/14/11: VIX closed below Bollinger Band (20, 2). The expectations were for an increase in volatility. Actual results below...

Ticker	Name	Date	Price	Ex. date	Ex. Price	% chg	MAE	MFE
^VIX	CBOE Volatility Index	1/14/2011	15.46	1/21/2011	18.47	19.47%	-0.58%	21.93%

So, yeah, the VIX shot up that week. Good, I predicted the correct direction of the VIX, but can I use that to make some money through VIX ETF's? Below is how a handful of ETF's performed that week.

Ticker	Name	Date	Price	Ex. date	Ex. Price	% chg	MAE	MFE
TVIX	Velocityshares Daily 2x Vix Short Term ETN	1/14/2011	45.3	1/21/2011	47.25	4.30%	-7.09%	10.04%
ZIV	Velocityshares Daily Inverse Vix Medium Term	1/14/2011	115.03	1/21/2011	118.7	3.19%	0.00%	3.19%
VIIX	Velocityshares Vix Short Term ETN	1/14/2011	68	1/21/2011	69.63	2.40%	-0.12%	3.26%
VXX	Barclays Bank iPath S&P 500 Vix Short Term F	1/14/2011	31.57	1/21/2011	32.23	2.09%	-3.42%	5.23%
CVOL	C-Tracks Exchange Trade Notes Based on The P	1/14/2011	53.55	1/21/2011	53.85	0.56%	-5.96%	3.66%
VQT	Barclays +S&P Veqtortm ETN	1/14/2011	110.01	1/21/2011	109.96	-0.05%	-0.39%	0.79%
VXZ	Barclays Bank iPath S&P 500 Vix Mid Term Fut	1/14/2011	60.34	1/21/2011	60.27	-0.12%	-2.22%	2.50%
XXV	iPath Inverse S&P 500 Vix Short-Term Futures	1/14/2011	34.05	1/21/2011	33.9	-0.44%	-0.76%	0.59%
XVIX	UBS AG E-Tracs Daily Long-Short Vix 2040 ETN	1/14/2011	25.47	1/21/2011	25.1	-1.45%	-1.61%	0.39%
VIIZ	Velocityshares Vix Medium Term ETN	1/14/2011	86.18	1/21/2011	84.64	-1.79%	-2.22%	0.00%
VZZ	IPath Long Enhanced S&P 500 Vix Mid-Term Fut	1/14/2011	20.34	1/21/2011	19.97	-1.82%	-6.10%	3.64%
XIV	Velocityshares Daily Inverse Vix Short Term	1/14/2011	142.09	1/21/2011	138.35	-2.63%	-5.56%	3.20%
TVIZ	Velocityshares Daily 2x Vix Medium Term ETN	1/14/2011	73.93	1/21/2011	71.17	-3.73%	-4.44%	0.00%

You can see how each ETF fared if you bought on the close 1/14/11 and sold on the close 1/21/11. The right columns show the highest run-up and the worst drawdown intraday. (i.e. if you bought TVIX, you would have closed with a 4.30% profit, but were down as much as -7.09% and up as much as 10.04% during that trade.) On a week where the VIX was up almost 20%, I could've made only 4+% using TVIX. I don't really like that correlation. Although not totally unexpected, a massive VIX move does not create an equal one via ETF's (even leveraged).
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1/28/11: VIX Up 20% in One Day: Bearish Volatility, Bullish S&P 500. The expectations were for a decrease in volatility. Actual results below...

Ticker	Name	Date	Price	Ex. date	Ex. Price	% chg	MAE	MFE
^VIX	CBOE Volatility Index	1/28/2011	20.04	2/4/2011	15.93	-20.51%	-20.56%	0.20%

Again, fortunate to predict correctly and to get a huge VIX move (-20%). How did the VIX ETF's fare?

Ticker	Name	Date	Price	Ex. date	Ex. Price	% chg	MAE	MFE
XIV	Velocityshares Daily Inverse Vix Short Term	1/28/2011	137.5	2/4/2011	150.06	9.13%	-1.32%	11.29%
ZIV	Velocityshares Daily Inverse Vix Medium Term	1/28/2011	121.54	2/4/2011	128.81	5.98%	0.00%	5.98%
VQT	Barclays +S&P Veqtortm ETN	1/28/2011	109.43	2/4/2011	111.63	2.01%	0.00%	2.21%
XXV	iPath Inverse S&P 500 Vix Short-Term Futures	1/28/2011	33.94	2/4/2011	34.46	1.53%	-0.18%	1.53%
XVIX	UBS AG E-Tracs Daily Long-Short Vix 2040 ETN	1/28/2011	24.45	2/4/2011	23.96	-2.00%	-5.32%	1.43%
VXZ	Barclays Bank iPath S&P 500 Vix Mid Term Fut	1/28/2011	58.65	2/4/2011	54.94	-6.33%	-6.33%	0.36%
TVIZ	Velocityshares Daily 2x Vix Medium Term ETN	1/28/2011	65.3	2/4/2011	60.86	-6.80%	-6.80%	1.09%
VIIX	Velocityshares Vix Short Term ETN	1/28/2011	68.97	2/4/2011	64.14	-7.00%	-7.00%	1.35%
VIIZ	Velocityshares Vix Medium Term ETN	1/28/2011	84.64	2/4/2011	78.17	-7.64%	-7.64%	0.00%
VXX	Barclays Bank iPath S&P 500 Vix Short Term F	1/28/2011	32.1	2/4/2011	29.21	-9.00%	-9.41%	1.46%
CVOL	C-Tracks Exchange Trade Notes Based on The P	1/28/2011	50.77	2/4/2011	43.5	-14.32%	-14.32%	0.79%
VZZ	IPath Long Enhanced S&P 500 Vix Mid-Term Fut	1/28/2011	18.86	2/4/2011	15.63	-17.13%	-17.13%	0.11%
TVIX	Velocityshares Daily 2x Vix Short Term ETN	1/28/2011	46.11	2/4/2011	38.13	-17.31%	-17.31%	2.65%

Interesting to see how those inverse VIX ETF's perform. Shorting (available shares?) TVIX could've been an option. Or just buying XIV was a decent choice. I'm slowly starting to figure these ETF's out.  When the VIX drops, those ETF's seem to track the action better than when the VIX rises. (I'm sure a technical explanation exists, but not from me.) Average trading volume is still really low for most them, so I'll probably wait before I venture into some of the newer ETF's.  My VIX explorations will be ongoing...